Americans Cut Travel Budgets 18% And Hawaii Will Feel It In 2026

A new holiday travel study released by Deloitte has finally quantified a shift that has been quietly approaching Hawaii for months. More Americans plan to take trips next year, but they intend to spend less on each one. That includes staying more with family and friends instead of in hotels, and replacing air travel with regional driving when possible. That directly challenges Hawaii’s dependence on air travel, long hotel stays, and higher spending. The national travel trends outlined by Deloitte do not align with the model Hawaii has relied on for decades, and that mismatch will matter in 2026.

What Deloitte found includes higher-income households tightening their belts.

Deloitte’s new holiday travel study reveals an 18% drop in planned spending. While the Deloitte study focuses on the holiday season, the behaviors it identifies align with early signals of what Hawaii may face in 2026. At the same time, the average number of trips per traveler is expected to decrease from 2.14 to 1.83, as more travelers opt for shorter, regional driving trips instead of longer, more expensive flights.

Even high-income households, the same group Hawaii relies on most, are now pulling back sharply. Nineteen percent of households with incomes of $100K or more feel worse off. Planning windows are tightening as travelers wait longer to book, watch airfares more closely, and become more selective about where they spend.

“High-income travelers are leading the pullback in travel spending with fewer and shorter trips, less long-distance flying, and more caution around experience upgrades,” Deloitte found.

While Hawaii is not directly mentioned in the study, it is one of the most exposed destinations because its costs are high and its infrastructure, pricing, and availability make quick adaptation difficult.

Hawaii’s visitor model has depended on the big trip.

That’s when visitors stay seven to ten nights, splurge on activities, and justify high airfares and increasingly uncomfortable flights by stretching their vacation as long as possible.

Following Covid, the average length of stay climbed to around ten days before beginning a steady decline. September’s average fell to 8.25 days, the very low end of Hawaii’s historic range, and early signals suggest it may slip further.

That long-stay model drives hotel revenue, restaurant spending, activity sales, rental car demand, and airline profitability. It is also why per-visitor spending has mattered so much in recent years, as we covered in Hawaii Got The Slowdown It Asked For Now It Is Running Scared.

A shift away from longer stays hits Hawaii immediately. Take one or two nights off a trip, and the first things to go are meals out, activities, and rental days, and hotels quickly feel that gap. Hawaii costs more to visit and operate than almost anywhere else, so even small changes in how people plan their trips ripple through the islands almost immediately.

What the latest data shows.

DBEDT’s 2025 reports look steady. September averaged 8.25 days, and July came in higher at 8.84, and August was 8.49. More extended stays are still the norm in Hawaii and have traditionally increased only slightly year over year. However, state data often lags behind actual changes, which are more accurately reflected in planning at this point.

Visitor behavior often shifts quietly months before the stay data reflects it. Deloitte is indicating the beginning of a shift that Hawaii will likely experience in early 2026 and beyond, not immediately.

The shift BOH editors made.

Editors Rob and Jeff made the same shift unknowingly. Every year, we typically spend at least three months traveling throughout the Hawaiian islands and as far as French Polynesia, and this year, to the Cook Islands to bring back reporting.

For 2026, we have reduced travel time by approximately a month and reallocated the time and resources into shorter, more frequent trips. We made these calls before ever seeing Deloitte’s data, and it turns out we were making the same shift millions of travelers are now signaling. Clearly, we are not alone. This pattern is taking shape long before it appears in any state report.

The new pattern.

Our readers have been signaling this for months. Nine night trips are shrinking to six. Luaus and high cost activities are being skipped in favor of beaches and trails. A second island is disappearing from many itineraries because interisland flights and car rentals add too much cost. Instead, visitors are adding a cheaper mainland trip and trimming their time in Hawaii. Hawaii is not being replaced. Hawaii is being compressed. And that reality changes every dynamic.

Airlines and hotels.

Hawaii’s operators tend to adapt slowly. Airlines require predictable bookings for longer-haul routes, but shorter booking windows prompt them to adopt reactive pricing. Hotels rely on longer blocks to manage labor and turnover costs. Rental car companies have long depended on weeklong bookings. Activity companies depend on higher-margin tours that are the first thing visitors cut.

Accommodations clinging to minimum night stays in the new world of travel risk losing business to more flexible competitors. Airlines that expect last-minute premium bookings may misread demand and end up discounting flights. Tour operators whose pricing does not match the new budget reality may feel softness. We already see more restaurant availability and empty parking lots. The industry’s long-held assumptions are being fully tested just as travelers are changing course.

Hawaiian, Alaska and the other Hawaii airlines.

The Alaska purchase of Hawaiian arrives in the middle of this shift. The combined airline is reassessing Hawaii routes and schedules, while trying to reassure travelers about brand identity, as we reported in How Long Will Hawaiian Alaska Dual Branding Really Last. Now add shorter booking windows, tighter budgets, and a more price-sensitive visitor.

Premium cabin demand, a key piece of revenue for airlines and long in high demand, may become vulnerable if visitors shorten their stays. Widebody planning becomes challenging when booking behavior shifts. Route decisions become riskier when load factors change later than expected. Airlines must adapt faster than the market, not slower, during a national reset that makes longer haul flying harder to predict.

The Hawaii tension.

Hawaii built its reputation on longer, unhurried vacations, but the emerging trend of shorter, smaller-budget trips directly challenges that very identity. If the average Hawaii vacation drops by even a day or two more, visitor behavior will change dramatically. So does what visitors choose, what they skip, and how Hawaii feels in real time.